1
29%
Home Win
3.5
X
31%
Draw
3.28
2
41%
Away Win
2.44
xG Home
0.88
xG Away
1.12
Over 2.5 Goals
32%
BTTS
40%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Lazio an expected 0.9 goals and AC Milan an expected 1.1 goals. Lazio have a 29% win probability, draw stands at 31%, and AC Milan at 41%. The most likely exact scoreline is 0–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 68%.
Correct Score Predictions
0:1
15.1%
0:0
13.5%
1:1
13.3%
1:0
11.9%
0:2
8.5%
1:2
7.5%
2:1
5.9%
2:0
5.3%
2:2
3.3%
0:3
3.2%
1:3
2.8%
3:1
1.7%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | AC Milan Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 41% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.44 |
| Market Odds | 2.59 |
Team Comparison
| Lazio | AC Milan | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | League Position | 5 |
| 54 | Points | 70 |
| 37% | Win % | 53% |
| 1.08 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.39 |
| 1.05 | Avg Goals Conceded | 0.92 |
Venue Form
Lazio at Home
W0
D1
L1
(2 games)
AC Milan Away
W1
D1
L1
(3 games)
Recent Form
Lazio
L
D
AC Milan
D
L
W
