1
42%
Home Win
2.39
X
23%
Draw
4.33
2
35%
Away Win
2.85
xG Home
1.71
xG Away
1.55
Over 2.5 Goals
63%
BTTS
65%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Heerenveen an expected 1.7 goals and AZ Alkmaar an expected 1.6 goals. Heerenveen have a 42% win probability, draw stands at 23%, and AZ Alkmaar at 35%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 63%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
10.2%
2:1
8.7%
1:2
7.9%
2:2
6.7%
1:0
6.6%
0:1
5.9%
2:0
5.6%
3:1
5%
0:2
4.6%
1:3
4.1%
3:2
3.8%
0:0
3.8%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Heerenveen Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 42% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.38 |
| Market Odds | 2.53 |
Team Comparison
| Heerenveen | AZ Alkmaar | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | League Position | 7 |
| 51 | Points | 52 |
| 41% | Win % | 41% |
| 1.68 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.71 |
| 1.56 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.5 |
Venue Form
Heerenveen at Home
W1
D0
L0
(1 games)
AZ Alkmaar Away
W0
D2
L0
(2 games)
Recent Form
Heerenveen
W
AZ Alkmaar
D
D
