1
37%
Home Win
2.68
X
28%
Draw
3.62
2
35%
Away Win
2.86
xG Home
1.22
xG Away
1.18
Over 2.5 Goals
43%
BTTS
49%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Hamburger SV an expected 1.2 goals and FSV Mainz 05 an expected 1.2 goals. Hamburger SV have a 37% win probability, draw stands at 28%, and FSV Mainz 05 at 35%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 57%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
13.1%
1:0
11.1%
0:1
10.7%
0:0
9.1%
2:1
8%
1:2
7.7%
2:0
6.8%
0:2
6.3%
2:2
4.7%
3:1
3.3%
1:3
3%
3:0
2.8%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Hamburger SV Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 37% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.7 |
| Market Odds | 2.88 |
Team Comparison
| Hamburger SV | FSV Mainz 05 | |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | League Position | 10 |
| 38 | Points | 40 |
| 26% | Win % | 29% |
| 1.18 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.29 |
| 1.59 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.56 |
Venue Form
Hamburger SV at Home
W1
D0
L1
(2 games)
FSV Mainz 05 Away
W1
D1
L1
(3 games)
Recent Form
Hamburger SV
W
L
FSV Mainz 05
W
D
L
