1
38%
Home Win
2.61
X
28%
Draw
3.57
2
34%
Away Win
2.97
xG Home
1.22
xG Away
1.13
Over 2.5 Goals
42%
BTTS
48%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Guimaraes an expected 1.2 goals and Nacional an expected 1.1 goals. Guimaraes have a 38% win probability, draw stands at 28%, and Nacional at 34%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 58%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
13.1%
1:0
11.7%
0:1
10.8%
0:0
9.5%
2:1
8%
1:2
7.4%
2:0
7.1%
0:2
6.1%
2:2
4.5%
3:1
3.3%
3:0
2.9%
1:3
2.8%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Guimaraes Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 38% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.63 |
| Market Odds | 2.8 |
Team Comparison
| Guimaraes | Nacional | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | League Position | 14 |
| 42 | Points | 34 |
| 35% | Win % | 26% |
| 1.15 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.09 |
| 1.5 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.32 |
Venue Form
Guimaraes at Home
W1
D0
L1
(2 games)
Nacional Away
W1
D0
L1
(2 games)
Recent Form
Guimaraes
L
W
Nacional
L
W
