1
41%
Home Win
2.42
X
27%
Draw
3.69
2
32%
Away Win
3.17
xG Home
1.33
xG Away
1.13
Over 2.5 Goals
45%
BTTS
50%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Guimaraes an expected 1.3 goals and Moreirense an expected 1.1 goals. Guimaraes have a 41% win probability, draw stands at 27%, and Moreirense at 32%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 55%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
12.8%
1:0
11.4%
0:1
9.6%
0:0
8.6%
2:1
8.5%
2:0
7.6%
1:2
7.2%
0:2
5.4%
2:2
4.8%
3:1
3.8%
3:0
3.4%
1:3
2.7%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Guimaraes Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 41% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.44 |
| Market Odds | 2.59 |
Team Comparison
| Guimaraes | Moreirense | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | League Position | 7 |
| 42 | Points | 43 |
| 35% | Win % | 35% |
| 1.15 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.09 |
| 1.5 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.44 |
Venue Form
Guimaraes at Home
W1
D1
L1
(3 games)
Moreirense Away
W0
D0
L2
(2 games)
Recent Form
Guimaraes
D
L
W
Moreirense
L
L
