1
45%
Home Win
2.23
X
23%
Draw
4.3
2
32%
Away Win
3.14
xG Home
1.74
xG Away
1.43
Over 2.5 Goals
61%
BTTS
63%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Guimaraes an expected 1.7 goals and Arouca an expected 1.4 goals. Guimaraes have a 45% win probability, draw stands at 23%, and Arouca at 32%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 61%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
10.5%
2:1
9.1%
1:2
7.5%
1:0
7.3%
2:2
6.5%
2:0
6.3%
0:1
6%
3:1
5.3%
0:2
4.3%
0:0
4.2%
3:2
3.8%
3:0
3.7%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Guimaraes Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 45% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.22 |
| Market Odds | 2.36 |
Team Comparison
| Guimaraes | Arouca | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | League Position | 8 |
| 42 | Points | 42 |
| 35% | Win % | 35% |
| 1.15 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.38 |
| 1.5 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.88 |
Venue Form
Guimaraes at Home
W1
D0
L1
(2 games)
Arouca Away
W1
D0
L2
(3 games)
Recent Form
Guimaraes
L
W
Arouca
W
L
L
