1
23%
Home Win
4.43
X
22%
Draw
4.59
2
56%
Away Win
1.8
xG Home
1.18
xG Away
1.97
Over 2.5 Goals
61%
BTTS
60%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Fortuna Sittard an expected 1.2 goals and Ajax an expected 2.0 goals. Fortuna Sittard have a 23% win probability, draw stands at 22%, and Ajax at 56%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 61%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
10%
1:2
9.8%
0:1
8.4%
0:2
8.3%
1:3
6.4%
2:1
5.9%
2:2
5.8%
0:3
5.5%
1:0
5.1%
0:0
4.3%
2:3
3.8%
1:4
3.2%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Ajax Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 56% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.79 |
| Market Odds | 1.9 |
Team Comparison
| Fortuna Sittard | Ajax | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | League Position | 5 |
| 39 | Points | 56 |
| 32% | Win % | 41% |
| 1.44 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.82 |
| 1.85 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.21 |
Venue Form
Fortuna Sittard at Home
W1
D0
L1
(2 games)
Ajax Away
W1
D0
L0
(1 games)
Recent Form
Fortuna Sittard
W
L
Ajax
W
