1
45%
Home Win
2.2
X
27%
Draw
3.65
2
27%
Away Win
3.67
xG Home
1.36
xG Away
0.99
Over 2.5 Goals
42%
BTTS
47%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Fluminense an expected 1.4 goals and Bahia an expected 1.0 goals. Fluminense have a 45% win probability, draw stands at 27%, and Bahia at 27%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 58%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:0
12.9%
1:1
12.8%
0:0
9.5%
0:1
9.4%
2:0
8.8%
2:1
8.7%
1:2
6.4%
0:2
4.7%
2:2
4.3%
3:0
4%
3:1
4%
1:3
2.1%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Fluminense Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 45% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.22 |
| Market Odds | 2.36 |
Team Comparison
| Fluminense | Bahia | |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | League Position | 7 |
| 64 | Points | 60 |
| 50% | Win % | 45% |
| 1.32 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.32 |
| 1.03 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.21 |
Venue Form
Fluminense at Home
W1
D2
L0
(3 games)
Bahia Away
W0
D1
L1
(2 games)
Recent Form
Fluminense
D
D
W
Bahia
D
L
