1
44%
Home Win
2.27
X
31%
Draw
3.26
2
25%
Away Win
3.95
xG Home
1.15
xG Away
0.80
Over 2.5 Goals
31%
BTTS
37%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives FC Porto an expected 1.1 goals and Benfica an expected 0.8 goals. FC Porto have a 44% win probability, draw stands at 31%, and Benfica at 25%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 69%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:0
16.4%
0:0
14.3%
1:1
13.1%
0:1
11.4%
2:0
9.4%
2:1
7.5%
1:2
5.2%
0:2
4.5%
3:0
3.6%
2:2
3%
3:1
2.9%
1:3
1.4%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | FC Porto Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 44% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.27 |
| Market Odds | 2.42 |
Team Comparison
| FC Porto | Benfica | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | League Position | 3 |
| 88 | Points | 80 |
| 82% | Win % | 68% |
| 1.94 | Avg Goals Scored | 2.18 |
| 0.53 | Avg Goals Conceded | 0.74 |
Venue Form
FC Porto at Home
W3
D0
L0
(3 games)
Benfica Away
W2
D1
L0
(3 games)
Recent Form
FC Porto
W
W
W
Benfica
W
D
W
