1
86%
Home Win
1.17
X
10%
Draw
10.01
2
4%
Away Win
25.64
xG Home
2.94
xG Away
0.51
Over 2.5 Goals
67%
BTTS
37%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives FC Porto an expected 2.9 goals and Arouca an expected 0.5 goals. FC Porto have a 86% win probability, draw stands at 10%, and Arouca at 4%. The most likely exact scoreline is 2–0. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 67%.
Correct Score Predictions
2:0
13.8%
3:0
13.5%
4:0
9.9%
1:0
9.4%
2:1
7%
3:1
6.8%
4:1
5%
1:1
4.7%
0:0
3.2%
2:2
1.8%
3:2
1.7%
0:1
1.6%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | FC Porto Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 86% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.16 |
| Market Odds | 1.24 |
Team Comparison
| FC Porto | Arouca | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | League Position | 8 |
| 88 | Points | 42 |
| 82% | Win % | 35% |
| 1.94 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.38 |
| 0.53 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.88 |
Venue Form
FC Porto at Home
W3
D0
L0
(3 games)
Arouca Away
W1
D0
L2
(3 games)
Recent Form
FC Porto
W
W
W
Arouca
W
L
L
