1
82%
Home Win
1.22
X
13%
Draw
7.49
2
4%
Away Win
23.42
xG Home
2.39
xG Away
0.38
Over 2.5 Goals
52%
BTTS
28%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives FC Porto an expected 2.4 goals and Alverca an expected 0.4 goals. FC Porto have a 82% win probability, draw stands at 13%, and Alverca at 4%. The most likely exact scoreline is 2–0. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 52%.
Correct Score Predictions
2:0
18%
1:0
15%
3:0
14.3%
4:0
8.6%
2:1
6.8%
0:0
6.3%
1:1
5.7%
3:1
5.4%
4:1
3.2%
0:1
2.4%
2:2
1.3%
1:2
1.1%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | FC Porto Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 82% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.22 |
| Market Odds | 1.3 |
Team Comparison
| FC Porto | Alverca | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | League Position | 11 |
| 88 | Points | 39 |
| 82% | Win % | 29% |
| 1.94 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.03 |
| 0.53 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.53 |
Venue Form
FC Porto at Home
W3
D0
L0
(3 games)
Alverca Away
W0
D0
L2
(2 games)
Recent Form
FC Porto
W
W
W
Alverca
L
L
