1
31%
Home Win
3.24
X
27%
Draw
3.76
2
43%
Away Win
2.35
xG Home
1.14
xG Away
1.38
Over 2.5 Goals
46%
BTTS
51%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Excelsior an expected 1.1 goals and Groningen an expected 1.4 goals. Excelsior have a 31% win probability, draw stands at 27%, and Groningen at 43%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 54%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
12.6%
0:1
11.1%
1:0
9.1%
1:2
8.8%
0:0
8%
0:2
7.7%
2:1
7.2%
2:0
5.2%
2:2
5%
1:3
4%
0:3
3.5%
3:1
2.7%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Groningen Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 43% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.33 |
| Market Odds | 2.47 |
Team Comparison
| Excelsior | Groningen | |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | League Position | 9 |
| 38 | Points | 48 |
| 29% | Win % | 41% |
| 1.26 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.44 |
| 1.65 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.32 |
Venue Form
Excelsior at Home
W1
D1
L1
(3 games)
Groningen Away
W0
D0
L2
(2 games)
Recent Form
Excelsior
L
D
W
Groningen
L
L
