1
46%
Home Win
2.17
X
22%
Draw
4.57
2
32%
Away Win
3.11
xG Home
1.93
xG Away
1.59
Over 2.5 Goals
68%
BTTS
68%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Ajax an expected 1.9 goals and NEC Nijmegen an expected 1.6 goals. Ajax have a 46% win probability, draw stands at 22%, and NEC Nijmegen at 32%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 68%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
9.1%
2:1
8.8%
1:2
7.2%
2:2
7%
1:0
5.7%
3:1
5.6%
2:0
5.5%
0:1
4.7%
3:2
4.5%
1:3
3.8%
0:2
3.7%
2:3
3.7%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Ajax Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 46% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.17 |
| Market Odds | 2.31 |
Team Comparison
| Ajax | NEC Nijmegen | |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | League Position | 3 |
| 56 | Points | 59 |
| 41% | Win % | 47% |
| 1.82 | Avg Goals Scored | 2.26 |
| 1.21 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.56 |
Venue Form
Ajax at Home
W2
D2
L1
(5 games)
NEC Nijmegen Away
W0
D1
L1
(2 games)
Recent Form
Ajax
D
W
W
L
D
NEC Nijmegen
L
D
