1
30%
Home Win
3.29
X
24%
Draw
4.09
2
45%
Away Win
2.22
xG Home
1.28
xG Away
1.61
Over 2.5 Goals
55%
BTTS
58%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Everton an expected 1.3 goals and Manchester United an expected 1.6 goals. Everton have a 30% win probability, draw stands at 24%, and Manchester United at 45%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 55%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
11.5%
1:2
9.2%
0:1
9%
2:1
7.3%
0:2
7.2%
1:0
7.1%
2:2
5.9%
0:0
5.6%
1:3
4.9%
2:0
4.6%
0:3
3.9%
2:3
3.2%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Manchester United Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 45% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.22 |
| Market Odds | 2.36 |
Team Comparison
| Everton | Manchester United | |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | League Position | 3 |
| 49 | Points | 71 |
| 34% | Win % | 53% |
| 1.24 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.82 |
| 1.32 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.32 |
Venue Form
Everton at Home
W0
D1
L2
(3 games)
Manchester United Away
W1
D1
L0
(2 games)
Recent Form
Everton
D
L
L
Manchester United
D
W
