1
5%
Home Win
19.49
X
11%
Draw
9.26
2
84%
Away Win
1.19
xG Home
0.64
xG Away
2.98
Over 2.5 Goals
70%
BTTS
44%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Estrela da Amadora an expected 0.6 goals and Sporting CP an expected 3.0 goals. Estrela da Amadora have a 5% win probability, draw stands at 11%, and Sporting CP at 84%. The most likely exact scoreline is 0–2. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 70%.
Correct Score Predictions
0:2
12%
0:3
11.9%
0:4
8.8%
0:1
8%
1:2
7.6%
1:3
7.5%
1:4
5.6%
1:1
5.1%
0:0
2.7%
2:2
2.4%
2:3
2.4%
2:4
1.8%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Sporting CP Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 84% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.19 |
| Market Odds | 1.27 |
Team Comparison
| Estrela da Amadora | Sporting CP | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | League Position | 2 |
| 30 | Points | 82 |
| 18% | Win % | 74% |
| 1.12 | Avg Goals Scored | 2.62 |
| 1.65 | Avg Goals Conceded | 0.71 |
Venue Form
Estrela da Amadora at Home
W1
D1
L1
(3 games)
Sporting CP Away
W1
D1
L0
(2 games)
Recent Form
Estrela da Amadora
D
L
W
Sporting CP
W
D
