1
31%
Home Win
3.22
X
28%
Draw
3.56
2
41%
Away Win
2.44
xG Home
1.06
xG Away
1.26
Over 2.5 Goals
41%
BTTS
47%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Casa Pia AC an expected 1.1 goals and Moreirense an expected 1.3 goals. Casa Pia AC have a 31% win probability, draw stands at 28%, and Moreirense at 41%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 59%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
13.1%
0:1
12.4%
1:0
10.4%
0:0
9.9%
1:2
8.3%
0:2
7.8%
2:1
6.9%
2:0
5.5%
2:2
4.4%
1:3
3.5%
0:3
3.3%
3:1
2.4%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Moreirense Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 41% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.44 |
| Market Odds | 2.59 |
Team Comparison
| Casa Pia AC | Moreirense | |
|---|---|---|
| 16 | League Position | 7 |
| 30 | Points | 43 |
| 18% | Win % | 35% |
| 0.91 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.09 |
| 1.68 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.44 |
Venue Form
Casa Pia AC at Home
W1
D1
L2
(4 games)
Moreirense Away
W0
D0
L2
(2 games)
Recent Form
Casa Pia AC
W
L
L
D
Moreirense
L
L
