1
6%
Home Win
16.84
X
14%
Draw
7.35
2
80%
Away Win
1.24
xG Home
0.54
xG Away
2.52
Over 2.5 Goals
59%
BTTS
38%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Casa Pia AC an expected 0.5 goals and Benfica an expected 2.5 goals. Casa Pia AC have a 6% win probability, draw stands at 14%, and Benfica at 80%. The most likely exact scoreline is 0–2. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 59%.
Correct Score Predictions
0:2
14.9%
0:3
12.5%
0:1
11.8%
1:2
8%
0:4
7.9%
1:3
6.7%
1:1
6.4%
0:0
4.7%
1:4
4.2%
1:0
2.5%
2:2
2.2%
2:3
1.8%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Benfica Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 80% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.25 |
| Market Odds | 1.33 |
Team Comparison
| Casa Pia AC | Benfica | |
|---|---|---|
| 16 | League Position | 3 |
| 30 | Points | 80 |
| 18% | Win % | 68% |
| 0.91 | Avg Goals Scored | 2.18 |
| 1.68 | Avg Goals Conceded | 0.74 |
Venue Form
Casa Pia AC at Home
W1
D1
L2
(4 games)
Benfica Away
W1
D1
L0
(2 games)
Recent Form
Casa Pia AC
W
L
L
D
Benfica
D
W
