1
72%
Home Win
1.39
X
18%
Draw
5.6
2
10%
Away Win
9.93
xG Home
2.18
xG Away
0.67
Over 2.5 Goals
54%
BTTS
43%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Borussia Dortmund an expected 2.2 goals and Hamburger SV an expected 0.7 goals. Borussia Dortmund have a 72% win probability, draw stands at 18%, and Hamburger SV at 10%. The most likely exact scoreline is 2–0. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 54%.
Correct Score Predictions
2:0
13.7%
1:0
12.5%
3:0
10%
2:1
9.2%
1:1
8.4%
3:1
6.7%
0:0
5.7%
4:0
5.4%
0:1
3.9%
4:1
3.7%
2:2
3.1%
1:2
2.8%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Borussia Dortmund Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 72% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.39 |
| Market Odds | 1.48 |
Team Comparison
| Borussia Dortmund | Hamburger SV | |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | League Position | 13 |
| 73 | Points | 38 |
| 65% | Win % | 26% |
| 2.06 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.18 |
| 1 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.59 |
Venue Form
Borussia Dortmund at Home
W2
D0
L0
(2 games)
Hamburger SV Away
W1
D0
L1
(2 games)
Recent Form
Borussia Dortmund
W
W
Hamburger SV
W
L
