1
29%
Home Win
3.44
X
27%
Draw
3.67
2
44%
Away Win
2.29
xG Home
1.05
xG Away
1.35
Over 2.5 Goals
43%
BTTS
48%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Birmingham an expected 1.0 goals and Middlesbrough an expected 1.4 goals. Birmingham have a 29% win probability, draw stands at 27%, and Middlesbrough at 44%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 57%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
12.8%
0:1
12.2%
1:0
9.5%
0:0
9%
1:2
8.7%
0:2
8.3%
2:1
6.7%
2:0
5%
2:2
4.6%
1:3
3.9%
0:3
3.7%
3:1
2.4%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Middlesbrough Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 44% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.27 |
| Market Odds | 2.42 |
Team Comparison
| Birmingham | Middlesbrough | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | League Position | 5 |
| 64 | Points | 80 |
| 37% | Win % | 48% |
| 1.24 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.57 |
| 1.22 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.02 |
Venue Form
Birmingham at Home
W2
D1
L0
(3 games)
Middlesbrough Away
W1
D3
L1
(5 games)
Recent Form
Birmingham
D
W
W
Middlesbrough
W
L
D
D
D
