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Derby vs Norwich City — Prediction

Derby Derby
1 – 1
Most likely score (model)
Tue, 03 Nov 2026 · Championship
Open Match Centre
Score · Lineups · Live stats
Norwich City Norwich City

Match information

Scheduled
Kickoff
3 Nov 2026, 19:45 UTC
Competition
Championship
Previous matches

All competitions; results strictly before this fixture. The recorded score may include extra time; shootout goals are not added.

Derby
  • Millwall 4–1 Derby
  • Sheffield United 1–1 Derby
  • Burnley 1–1 Derby
  • Derby 1–2 Birmingham
  • Derby 0–1 West Brom
Norwich City
  • Norwich City 3–2 Watford
  • Charlton 1–3 Norwich City
  • Norwich City 3–4 Bolton
  • Middlesbrough 4–3 Norwich City
  • Norwich City 2–1 Birmingham
Model & data

Table-based model estimate

Matches in saved table: Derby 46 · Norwich City 46. Data saved: 2026-11-02 00:00 UTC.

Table season: 2025

This Poisson estimate uses goals scored and conceded per game in the saved league table. Home advantage is 1.08; goal rates are limited to 0.3–5.0.

Model goal expectation is not measured shot-based xG. Injuries, confirmed lineups and live match state are not inputs to this calculation.

Assessment recorded before kickoff: Derby 46% · 2026-11-02 05:00 UTC.

An estimate is not a guarantee of the result.

Lineups, events, odds and statistics depend on provider coverage. Missing data is not a zero value.

1X2 model fair odds · Bookmaker prices may differ

1 42%
Home Win 2.36
X 26%
Draw 3.92
2 32%
Away Win 3.11
Model goal expectation · 1 1.47
Model goal expectation · 2 1.25
Over 2.5 Goals 51%
BTTS 55%

Table-based model estimate

Model goal expectation: Derby 1.47 · Norwich City 1.25.
1 42% · X 26% · 2 32%.

Correct Score Predictions

1:1 12.1%
1:0 9.7%
2:1 8.9%
0:1 8.2%
1:2 7.6%
2:0 7.1%
0:0 6.6%
2:2 5.6%
0:2 5.1%
3:1 4.4%
3:0 3.5%
1:3 3.1%

About this assessment

Model outcome Derby Win
Probability 42%
Predicted Odds 2.38

Team Comparison

Derby Norwich City
8 League Position 9
69 Points 65
43% Win % 41%
1.46 Avg Goals Scored 1.37
1.28 Avg Goals Conceded 1.22

Venue Form

Derby at Home
W0 D0 L2 (2 games)
0% win rate
Norwich City Away
W1 D0 L1 (2 games)
50% win rate

Recent Form

Derby
L D D L L
Norwich City
W W L L W

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