1
58%
Home Win
1.71
X
22%
Draw
4.45
2
19%
Away Win
5.25
xG Home
1.86
xG Away
0.96
Over 2.5 Goals
53%
BTTS
52%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Benfica an expected 1.9 goals and SC Braga an expected 1.0 goals. Benfica have a 58% win probability, draw stands at 22%, and SC Braga at 19%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 53%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:0
11.2%
1:1
10.7%
2:0
10.4%
2:1
9.9%
3:0
6.4%
3:1
6.1%
0:0
6%
0:1
5.7%
1:2
5.1%
2:2
4.7%
4:0
3%
3:2
2.9%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Benfica Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 58% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.72 |
| Market Odds | 1.83 |
Team Comparison
| Benfica | SC Braga | |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | League Position | 4 |
| 80 | Points | 59 |
| 68% | Win % | 47% |
| 2.18 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.88 |
| 0.74 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.06 |
Venue Form
Benfica at Home
W1
D1
L0
(2 games)
SC Braga Away
W1
D1
L2
(4 games)
Recent Form
Benfica
D
W
SC Braga
L
D
L
W
