1
80%
Home Win
1.25
X
12%
Draw
8.13
2
7%
Away Win
13.74
xG Home
2.94
xG Away
0.81
Over 2.5 Goals
72%
BTTS
52%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Benfica an expected 2.9 goals and Estoril an expected 0.8 goals. Benfica have a 80% win probability, draw stands at 12%, and Estoril at 7%. The most likely exact scoreline is 2–0. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 72%.
Correct Score Predictions
2:0
10.2%
3:0
10%
2:1
8.2%
3:1
8.1%
4:0
7.3%
1:0
7%
4:1
5.9%
1:1
5.6%
2:2
3.3%
3:2
3.2%
4:2
2.4%
0:0
2.4%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Benfica Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 80% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.25 |
| Market Odds | 1.33 |
Team Comparison
| Benfica | Estoril | |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | League Position | 10 |
| 80 | Points | 39 |
| 68% | Win % | 29% |
| 2.18 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.59 |
| 0.74 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.68 |
Venue Form
Benfica at Home
W1
D1
L0
(2 games)
Estoril Away
W0
D2
L1
(3 games)
Recent Form
Benfica
D
W
Estoril
D
D
L
