Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin Prediction

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4 – 0
Most Likely Score
Fri, 18 Sep 2026 · Bundesliga
1 89%
Home Win 1.13
X 6%
Draw 16.53
2 3%
Away Win 33.22
xG Home 4.09
xG Away 0.78
Over 2.5 Goals 84%
BTTS 52%

Our Prediction

Our Poisson distribution model gives Bayern Munich an expected 4.1 goals and Union Berlin an expected 0.8 goals. Bayern Munich have a 89% win probability, draw stands at 6%, and Union Berlin at 3%. The most likely exact scoreline is 4–0. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 84%.

Correct Score Predictions

4:0 8.9%
3:0 8.7%
4:1 7%
3:1 6.8%
2:0 6.4%
2:1 5%
1:0 3.1%
4:2 2.7%
3:2 2.7%
1:1 2.5%
2:2 2%
1:2 1%

Detailed Analysis

Best Pick Bayern Munich Win
Probability 89%
Predicted Odds 1.12
Market Odds 1.2

Team Comparison

Bayern Munich Union Berlin
1 League Position 11
89 Points 39
82% Win % 29%
3.59 Avg Goals Scored 1.29
1.06 Avg Goals Conceded 1.71

Venue Form

Bayern Munich at Home
W2 D1 L0 (3 games)
67% win rate
Union Berlin Away
W1 D0 L2 (3 games)
33% win rate

Recent Form

Bayern Munich
D W W
Union Berlin
L W L