1
50%
Home Win
1.98
X
27%
Draw
3.72
2
23%
Away Win
4.4
xG Home
1.44
xG Away
0.87
Over 2.5 Goals
41%
BTTS
44%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Baltika an expected 1.4 goals and Dinamo Moscow an expected 0.9 goals. Baltika have a 50% win probability, draw stands at 27%, and Dinamo Moscow at 23%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 59%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:0
14.3%
1:1
12.4%
2:0
10.3%
0:0
10%
2:1
8.9%
0:1
8.7%
1:2
5.4%
3:0
4.9%
3:1
4.3%
2:2
3.9%
0:2
3.8%
3:2
1.9%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Baltika Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 50% |
| Predicted Odds | 2 |
| Market Odds | 2.13 |
Team Comparison
| Baltika | Dinamo Moscow | |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | League Position | 7 |
| 46 | Points | 45 |
| 37% | Win % | 40% |
| 1.27 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.7 |
| 0.7 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.33 |
