1
45%
Home Win
2.23
X
27%
Draw
3.66
2
28%
Away Win
3.6
xG Home
1.36
xG Away
1.01
Over 2.5 Goals
42%
BTTS
47%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Bahia an expected 1.4 goals and Chapecoense an expected 1.0 goals. Bahia have a 45% win probability, draw stands at 27%, and Chapecoense at 28%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 58%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
12.8%
1:0
12.7%
0:1
9.4%
0:0
9.3%
2:1
8.7%
2:0
8.7%
1:2
6.5%
0:2
4.8%
2:2
4.4%
3:1
4%
3:0
3.9%
1:3
2.2%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Bahia Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 45% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.22 |
| Market Odds | 2.36 |
Venue Form
Bahia at Home
W1
D1
L1
(3 games)
Chapecoense Away
W0
D2
L3
(5 games)
Recent Form
Bahia
W
L
D
Chapecoense
D
L
L
D
L
Head to Head
Chapecoense-sc
3 : 1
Bahia
L
Bahia
0 : 1
Chapecoense-sc
W
Bahia
3 : 0
Chapecoense-sc
L
