1
63%
Home Win
1.6
X
21%
Draw
4.75
2
16%
Away Win
6.1
xG Home
1.98
xG Away
0.90
Over 2.5 Goals
55%
BTTS
51%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives AZ Alkmaar an expected 2.0 goals and NAC Breda an expected 0.9 goals. AZ Alkmaar have a 63% win probability, draw stands at 21%, and NAC Breda at 16%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 55%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:0
11.1%
2:0
11%
1:1
10%
2:1
9.9%
3:0
7.3%
3:1
6.5%
0:0
5.6%
0:1
5.1%
1:2
4.5%
2:2
4.5%
4:0
3.6%
4:1
3.2%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | AZ Alkmaar Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 50% |
| Predicted Odds | 2 |
| Market Odds | 2.13 |
Team Comparison
| AZ Alkmaar | NAC Breda | |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | League Position | 17 |
| 52 | Points | 29 |
| 41% | Win % | 18% |
| 1.71 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.03 |
| 1.5 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.71 |
Venue Form
AZ Alkmaar at Home
W1
D1
L0
(2 games)
NAC Breda Away
W0
D0
L1
(1 games)
Recent Form
AZ Alkmaar
D
W
NAC Breda
L
Head to Head
NAC Breda
0 : 1
AZ Alkmaar
W
AZ Alkmaar
1 : 1
NAC Breda
D
NAC Breda
1 : 2
AZ Alkmaar
W
