1
28%
Home Win
3.6
X
28%
Draw
3.55
2
44%
Away Win
2.27
xG Home
0.97
xG Away
1.30
Over 2.5 Goals
39%
BTTS
45%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Atletico-MG an expected 1.0 goals and Botafogo an expected 1.3 goals. Atletico-MG have a 28% win probability, draw stands at 28%, and Botafogo at 44%. The most likely exact scoreline is 0–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 61%.
Correct Score Predictions
0:1
13.5%
1:1
13%
0:0
10.4%
1:0
10.1%
0:2
8.7%
1:2
8.5%
2:1
6.3%
2:0
4.9%
2:2
4.1%
0:3
3.8%
1:3
3.7%
3:1
2%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Botafogo Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 44% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.27 |
| Market Odds | 2.42 |
Team Comparison
| Atletico-MG | Botafogo | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | League Position | 6 |
| 48 | Points | 63 |
| 32% | Win % | 45% |
| 1.13 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.53 |
| 1.16 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1 |
Venue Form
Atletico-MG at Home
W1
D1
L1
(3 games)
Botafogo Away
W1
D1
L1
(3 games)
Recent Form
Atletico-MG
D
L
W
Botafogo
D
W
L
