1
48%
Home Win
2.09
X
25%
Draw
3.95
2
27%
Away Win
3.73
xG Home
1.55
xG Away
1.10
Over 2.5 Goals
49%
BTTS
53%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Aston Villa an expected 1.6 goals and Nottingham Forest an expected 1.1 goals. Aston Villa have a 48% win probability, draw stands at 25%, and Nottingham Forest at 27%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 51%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
12%
1:0
11%
2:1
9.3%
2:0
8.5%
0:1
7.7%
0:0
7.1%
1:2
6.6%
2:2
5.1%
3:1
4.8%
3:0
4.4%
0:2
4.2%
3:2
2.7%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Aston Villa Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 48% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.08 |
| Market Odds | 2.22 |
Team Comparison
| Aston Villa | Nottingham Forest | |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | League Position | 16 |
| 65 | Points | 44 |
| 50% | Win % | 29% |
| 1.47 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.26 |
| 1.29 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.34 |
Venue Form
Aston Villa at Home
W2
D0
L1
(3 games)
Nottingham Forest Away
W2
D0
L0
(2 games)
Recent Form
Aston Villa
W
L
W
Nottingham Forest
W
W
Head to Head
Aston Villa
–
Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest
1 : 0
Aston Villa
L
Nottingham Forest
1 : 1
Aston Villa
D
