1
67%
Home Win
1.49
X
20%
Draw
4.99
2
13%
Away Win
7.94
xG Home
2.01
xG Away
0.73
Over 2.5 Goals
52%
BTTS
45%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Arsenal an expected 2.0 goals and Chelsea an expected 0.7 goals. Arsenal have a 67% win probability, draw stands at 20%, and Chelsea at 13%. The most likely exact scoreline is 2–0. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 52%.
Correct Score Predictions
2:0
13%
1:0
13%
2:1
9.5%
1:1
9.5%
3:0
8.7%
0:0
6.5%
3:1
6.4%
0:1
4.7%
4:0
4.4%
2:2
3.5%
1:2
3.5%
4:1
3.2%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Arsenal Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 67% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.49 |
| Market Odds | 1.59 |
Team Comparison
| Arsenal | Chelsea | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | League Position | 10 |
| 85 | Points | 52 |
| 68% | Win % | 37% |
| 1.87 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.53 |
| 0.71 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.37 |
Venue Form
Arsenal at Home
W3
D0
L1
(4 games)
Chelsea Away
W0
D1
L1
(2 games)
Recent Form
Arsenal
W
W
W
L
Chelsea
D
L
