1
42%
Home Win
2.37
X
24%
Draw
4.15
2
34%
Away Win
2.96
xG Home
1.60
xG Away
1.41
Over 2.5 Goals
58%
BTTS
60%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Arouca an expected 1.6 goals and Moreirense an expected 1.4 goals. Arouca have a 42% win probability, draw stands at 24%, and Moreirense at 34%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 58%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
11.1%
2:1
8.9%
1:0
7.8%
1:2
7.8%
0:1
6.9%
2:0
6.3%
2:2
6.3%
0:0
4.9%
0:2
4.9%
3:1
4.8%
1:3
3.7%
3:0
3.4%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Arouca Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 42% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.38 |
| Market Odds | 2.53 |
Team Comparison
| Arouca | Moreirense | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | League Position | 7 |
| 42 | Points | 43 |
| 35% | Win % | 35% |
| 1.38 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.09 |
| 1.88 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.44 |
Venue Form
Arouca at Home
W1
D1
L0
(2 games)
Moreirense Away
W0
D0
L2
(2 games)
Recent Form
Arouca
D
W
Moreirense
L
L
