1
35%
Home Win
2.88
X
31%
Draw
3.23
2
34%
Away Win
2.91
xG Home
1.00
xG Away
0.99
Over 2.5 Goals
32%
BTTS
40%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Alverca an expected 1.0 goals and Santa Clara an expected 1.0 goals. Alverca have a 35% win probability, draw stands at 31%, and Santa Clara at 34%. The most likely exact scoreline is 0–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 68%.
Correct Score Predictions
0:0
13.6%
1:0
13.6%
0:1
13.5%
1:1
13.5%
2:0
6.8%
2:1
6.8%
0:2
6.7%
1:2
6.7%
2:2
3.4%
3:0
2.3%
3:1
2.3%
0:3
2.2%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Alverca Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 35% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.86 |
| Market Odds | 3.04 |
Team Comparison
| Alverca | Santa Clara | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | League Position | 13 |
| 39 | Points | 36 |
| 29% | Win % | 26% |
| 1.03 | Avg Goals Scored | 0.94 |
| 1.53 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.21 |
Venue Form
Alverca at Home
W1
D1
L0
(2 games)
Santa Clara Away
W0
D2
L1
(3 games)
Recent Form
Alverca
D
W
Santa Clara
D
D
L
