1
44%
Home Win
2.28
X
27%
Draw
3.73
2
29%
Away Win
3.4
xG Home
1.39
xG Away
1.09
Over 2.5 Goals
45%
BTTS
50%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Alverca an expected 1.4 goals and Rio Ave FC an expected 1.1 goals. Alverca have a 44% win probability, draw stands at 27%, and Rio Ave FC at 29%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 55%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
12.7%
1:0
11.7%
0:1
9.1%
2:1
8.8%
0:0
8.4%
2:0
8.1%
1:2
6.9%
0:2
5%
2:2
4.8%
3:1
4.1%
3:0
3.8%
1:3
2.5%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Alverca Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 44% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.27 |
| Market Odds | 2.42 |
Team Comparison
| Alverca | Rio Ave FC | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | League Position | 12 |
| 39 | Points | 36 |
| 29% | Win % | 24% |
| 1.03 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.03 |
| 1.53 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.68 |
Venue Form
Alverca at Home
W1
D1
L0
(2 games)
Rio Ave FC Away
W0
D0
L2
(2 games)
Recent Form
Alverca
D
W
Rio Ave FC
L
L
