1
41%
Home Win
2.43
X
27%
Draw
3.76
2
32%
Away Win
3.09
xG Home
1.36
xG Away
1.18
Over 2.5 Goals
47%
BTTS
52%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Alverca an expected 1.4 goals and Estrela da Amadora an expected 1.2 goals. Alverca have a 41% win probability, draw stands at 27%, and Estrela da Amadora at 32%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 53%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
12.6%
1:0
10.7%
0:1
9.3%
2:1
8.6%
0:0
7.8%
1:2
7.5%
2:0
7.3%
0:2
5.5%
2:2
5.1%
3:1
3.9%
3:0
3.3%
1:3
2.9%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Alverca Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 41% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.44 |
| Market Odds | 2.59 |
Team Comparison
| Alverca | Estrela da Amadora | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | League Position | 15 |
| 39 | Points | 30 |
| 29% | Win % | 18% |
| 1.03 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.12 |
| 1.53 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.65 |
Venue Form
Alverca at Home
W1
D1
L0
(2 games)
Estrela da Amadora Away
W0
D0
L2
(2 games)
Recent Form
Alverca
D
W
Estrela da Amadora
L
L
