1
32%
Home Win
3.14
X
24%
Draw
4.21
2
44%
Away Win
2.25
xG Home
1.39
xG Away
1.68
Over 2.5 Goals
59%
BTTS
61%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Alverca an expected 1.4 goals and Estoril an expected 1.7 goals. Alverca have a 32% win probability, draw stands at 24%, and Estoril at 44%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 59%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
10.9%
1:2
9.1%
0:1
7.8%
2:1
7.5%
0:2
6.6%
1:0
6.5%
2:2
6.3%
1:3
5.1%
0:0
4.7%
2:0
4.5%
0:3
3.7%
2:3
3.5%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Estoril Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 44% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.27 |
| Market Odds | 2.42 |
Team Comparison
| Alverca | Estoril | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | League Position | 10 |
| 39 | Points | 39 |
| 29% | Win % | 29% |
| 1.03 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.59 |
| 1.53 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.68 |
Venue Form
Alverca at Home
W1
D1
L0
(2 games)
Estoril Away
W0
D2
L1
(3 games)
Recent Form
Alverca
D
W
Estoril
D
D
L
