1X2 model fair odds · Bookmaker prices may differ
xG Home
1.46
xG Away
1.08
Over 2.5 Goals
46%
BTTS
51%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Alavés an expected 1.5 goals and Malaga an expected 1.1 goals. Alavés have a 46% win probability, draw stands at 26%, and Malaga at 28%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 54%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
12.5%
1:0
11.6%
2:1
9.1%
0:1
8.6%
2:0
8.4%
0:0
7.9%
1:2
6.7%
2:2
4.9%
0:2
4.6%
3:1
4.4%
3:0
4.1%
1:3
2.4%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Alavés Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 46% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.17 |
| Market Odds | 2.31 |
Venue Form
Alavés at Home
W2
D0
L1
(3 games)
Malaga Away
W0
D1
L1
(2 games)
Recent Form
Alavés
W
L
W
Malaga
L
D
