1X2 model fair odds · Bookmaker prices may differ
xG Home
1.17
xG Away
1.88
Over 2.5 Goals
59%
BTTS
59%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Valencia an expected 1.2 goals and Villarreal an expected 1.9 goals. Valencia have a 24% win probability, draw stands at 22%, and Villarreal at 54%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 59%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
10.4%
1:2
9.8%
0:1
8.8%
0:2
8.3%
1:3
6.1%
2:1
6.1%
2:2
5.7%
1:0
5.5%
0:3
5.2%
0:0
4.7%
2:3
3.6%
2:0
3.2%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Villarreal Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 54% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.85 |
| Market Odds | 1.97 |
Team Comparison
| Valencia | Villarreal | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | League Position | 3 |
| 49 | Points | 72 |
| 34% | Win % | 58% |
| 1.21 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.89 |
| 1.45 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.21 |
Venue Form
Valencia at Home
W1
D1
L4
(6 games)
Villarreal Away
W1
D2
L0
(3 games)
Recent Form
Valencia
L
L
L
D
L
Villarreal
W
D
D
