1
46%
Home Win
2.16
X
25%
Draw
3.94
2
28%
Away Win
3.54
xG Home
1.53
xG Away
1.14
Over 2.5 Goals
50%
BTTS
53%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Ajax an expected 1.5 goals and Utrecht an expected 1.1 goals. Ajax have a 46% win probability, draw stands at 25%, and Utrecht at 28%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 50%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
12.1%
1:0
10.6%
2:1
9.2%
2:0
8.1%
0:1
7.9%
0:0
6.9%
1:2
6.9%
2:2
5.3%
3:1
4.7%
0:2
4.5%
3:0
4.2%
3:2
2.7%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Utrecht Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 45% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.22 |
| Market Odds | 2.36 |
Team Comparison
| Ajax | Utrecht | |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | League Position | 6 |
| 56 | Points | 53 |
| 41% | Win % | 44% |
| 1.82 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.62 |
| 1.21 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.24 |
Venue Form
Ajax at Home
W1
D1
L1
(3 games)
Utrecht Away
W1
D0
L1
(2 games)
Recent Form
Ajax
W
L
D
Utrecht
W
L
Head to Head
Ajax
1 : 2
Utrecht
W
Utrecht
2 : 1
Ajax
L
Utrecht
4 : 0
Ajax
L
