1X2 model fair odds · Bookmaker prices may differ
xG Home
1.64
xG Away
1.01
Over 2.5 Goals
50%
BTTS
51%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Ajax an expected 1.6 goals and Groningen an expected 1.0 goals. Ajax have a 52% win probability, draw stands at 25%, and Groningen at 23%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 50%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
11.7%
1:0
11.5%
2:1
9.6%
2:0
9.5%
0:1
7.1%
0:0
7%
1:2
5.9%
3:1
5.3%
3:0
5.2%
2:2
4.9%
0:2
3.6%
3:2
2.7%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Ajax Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 45% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.22 |
| Market Odds | 2.36 |
Team Comparison
| Ajax | Groningen | |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | League Position | 9 |
| 56 | Points | 48 |
| 41% | Win % | 41% |
| 1.82 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.44 |
| 1.21 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.32 |
Venue Form
Ajax at Home
W2
D2
L1
(5 games)
Groningen Away
W0
D1
L2
(3 games)
Recent Form
Ajax
D
W
W
L
D
Groningen
D
L
L
Head to Head
Groningen
3 : 1
Ajax
L
Ajax
2 : 0
Groningen
L
Groningen
2 : 2
Ajax
D
