1
25%
Home Win
4.05
X
23%
Draw
4.31
2
52%
Away Win
1.92
xG Home
1.16
xG Away
1.79
Over 2.5 Goals
57%
BTTS
57%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Watford an expected 1.2 goals and Southampton an expected 1.8 goals. Watford have a 25% win probability, draw stands at 23%, and Southampton at 52%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 57%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
10.9%
1:2
9.7%
0:1
9.3%
0:2
8.4%
2:1
6.3%
1:0
6.1%
1:3
5.8%
2:2
5.7%
0:0
5.2%
0:3
5%
2:0
3.5%
2:3
3.4%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Southampton Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 52% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.92 |
| Market Odds | 2.05 |
Team Comparison
| Watford | Southampton | |
|---|---|---|
| 16 | League Position | 4 |
| 57 | Points | 80 |
| 30% | Win % | 48% |
| 1.15 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.78 |
| 1.41 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.22 |
Venue Form
Watford at Home
W0
D0
L2
(2 games)
Southampton Away
W2
D1
L0
(3 games)
Recent Form
Watford
L
L
Southampton
D
W
W
