1
47%
Home Win
2.12
X
24%
Draw
4.12
2
28%
Away Win
3.51
xG Home
1.65
xG Away
1.23
Over 2.5 Goals
55%
BTTS
57%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Utrecht an expected 1.7 goals and AZ Alkmaar an expected 1.2 goals. Utrecht have a 47% win probability, draw stands at 24%, and AZ Alkmaar at 28%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 55%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
11.4%
2:1
9.4%
1:0
9.3%
2:0
7.7%
1:2
7%
0:1
6.9%
2:2
5.8%
0:0
5.6%
3:1
5.2%
0:2
4.2%
3:0
4.2%
3:2
3.2%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Utrecht Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 47% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.13 |
| Market Odds | 2.26 |
Team Comparison
| Utrecht | AZ Alkmaar | |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | League Position | 7 |
| 53 | Points | 52 |
| 44% | Win % | 41% |
| 1.62 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.71 |
| 1.24 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.5 |
Venue Form
Utrecht at Home
W2
D0
L0
(2 games)
AZ Alkmaar Away
W0
D2
L0
(2 games)
Recent Form
Utrecht
W
W
AZ Alkmaar
D
D
