1X2 model fair odds · Bookmaker prices may differ
xG Home
0.86
xG Away
2.01
Over 2.5 Goals
55%
BTTS
50%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Union Berlin an expected 0.9 goals and Borussia Dortmund an expected 2.0 goals. Union Berlin have a 15% win probability, draw stands at 21%, and Borussia Dortmund at 64%. The most likely exact scoreline is 0–2. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 55%.
Correct Score Predictions
0:2
11.4%
0:1
11.3%
1:2
9.9%
1:1
9.8%
0:3
7.6%
1:3
6.6%
0:0
5.6%
1:0
4.9%
2:2
4.3%
2:1
4.2%
0:4
3.8%
1:4
3.3%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Borussia Dortmund Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 64% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.56 |
| Market Odds | 1.66 |
Team Comparison
| Union Berlin | Borussia Dortmund | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | League Position | 2 |
| 39 | Points | 73 |
| 29% | Win % | 65% |
| 1.29 | Avg Goals Scored | 2.06 |
| 1.71 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1 |
Venue Form
Union Berlin at Home
W0
D1
L2
(3 games)
Borussia Dortmund Away
W2
D0
L2
(4 games)
Recent Form
Union Berlin
L
D
L
Borussia Dortmund
W
L
L
W
