1
31%
Home Win
3.19
X
29%
Draw
3.42
2
39%
Away Win
2.54
xG Home
1.01
xG Away
1.17
Over 2.5 Goals
37%
BTTS
44%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Toronto FC an expected 1.0 goals and New York City FC an expected 1.2 goals. Toronto FC have a 31% win probability, draw stands at 29%, and New York City FC at 39%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 63%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
13.4%
0:1
13.3%
1:0
11.5%
0:0
11.4%
1:2
7.8%
0:2
7.7%
2:1
6.7%
2:0
5.8%
2:2
3.9%
1:3
3%
0:3
3%
3:1
2.3%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | New York City FC Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 39% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.56 |
| Market Odds | 2.73 |
Team Comparison
| Toronto FC | New York City FC | |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | League Position | 5 |
| 32 | Points | 56 |
| 18% | Win % | 50% |
| 1.09 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.47 |
| 1.29 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.29 |
Venue Form
Toronto FC at Home
W0
D3
L3
(6 games)
New York City FC Away
W1
D0
L1
(2 games)
Recent Form
Toronto FC
L
D
L
D
D
New York City FC
L
W
