1
39%
Home Win
2.56
X
29%
Draw
3.44
2
32%
Away Win
3.13
xG Home
1.17
xG Away
1.03
Over 2.5 Goals
38%
BTTS
44%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Toronto FC an expected 1.2 goals and New England Revolution an expected 1.0 goals. Toronto FC have a 39% win probability, draw stands at 29%, and New England Revolution at 32%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 62%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
13.4%
1:0
13%
0:1
11.4%
0:0
11.1%
2:1
7.8%
2:0
7.6%
1:2
6.9%
0:2
5.9%
2:2
4%
3:1
3%
3:0
3%
1:3
2.3%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Toronto FC Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 39% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.56 |
| Market Odds | 2.73 |
Team Comparison
| Toronto FC | New England Revolution | |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | League Position | 11 |
| 32 | Points | 36 |
| 18% | Win % | 26% |
| 1.09 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.29 |
| 1.29 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.5 |
Venue Form
Toronto FC at Home
W0
D3
L3
(6 games)
New England Revolution Away
W2
D1
L0
(3 games)
Recent Form
Toronto FC
L
D
L
D
D
New England Revolution
D
W
W
