1
33%
Home Win
3.02
X
24%
Draw
4.11
2
43%
Away Win
2.35
xG Home
1.37
xG Away
1.59
Over 2.5 Goals
57%
BTTS
59%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Toronto FC an expected 1.4 goals and Chicago Fire an expected 1.6 goals. Toronto FC have a 33% win probability, draw stands at 24%, and Chicago Fire at 43%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 57%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
11.3%
1:2
9%
0:1
8.2%
2:1
7.8%
1:0
7.1%
0:2
6.5%
2:2
6.2%
0:0
5.2%
2:0
4.9%
1:3
4.7%
3:1
3.6%
0:3
3.5%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Chicago Fire Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 43% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.33 |
| Market Odds | 2.47 |
Team Comparison
| Toronto FC | Chicago Fire | |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | League Position | 8 |
| 32 | Points | 53 |
| 18% | Win % | 44% |
| 1.09 | Avg Goals Scored | 2 |
| 1.29 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.76 |
Venue Form
Toronto FC at Home
W0
D3
L3
(6 games)
Chicago Fire Away
W0
D1
L0
(1 games)
Recent Form
Toronto FC
L
D
L
D
D
Chicago Fire
D
