1
81%
Home Win
1.24
X
12%
Draw
8.24
2
7%
Away Win
14.81
xG Home
2.90
xG Away
0.75
Over 2.5 Goals
70%
BTTS
50%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Toluca an expected 2.9 goals and Santos Laguna an expected 0.7 goals. Toluca have a 81% win probability, draw stands at 12%, and Santos Laguna at 7%. The most likely exact scoreline is 2–0. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 70%.
Correct Score Predictions
2:0
10.9%
3:0
10.6%
2:1
8.2%
3:1
7.9%
4:0
7.7%
1:0
7.5%
4:1
5.8%
1:1
5.6%
2:2
3.1%
3:2
3%
0:0
2.6%
4:2
2.2%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Toluca Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 81% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.23 |
| Market Odds | 1.31 |
Team Comparison
| Toluca | Santos Laguna | |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | League Position | 18 |
| 30 | Points | 12 |
| 47% | Win % | 18% |
| 1.65 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.18 |
| 0.94 | Avg Goals Conceded | 2.24 |
Venue Form
Toluca at Home
W2
D0
L2
(4 games)
Santos Laguna Away
W0
D0
L3
(3 games)
Recent Form
Toluca
L
L
W
W
Santos Laguna
L
L
L
