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Toluca vs Monterrey — Prediction

Toluca Toluca
1 – 0
Most likely score (model)
Sun, 08 Nov 2026 · Liga MX
Open Match Centre
Score · Lineups · Live stats
Monterrey Monterrey

Match information

Scheduled
Kickoff
8 Nov 2026, 01:00 UTC
Competition
Liga MX
Previous matches

All competitions; results strictly before this fixture. The recorded score may include extra time; shootout goals are not added.

Toluca
  • León FC 1–1 Toluca
  • Toluca 2–2 Club Tijuana
  • Toluca 1–1 Atletico San Luis
  • Cruz Azul 2–0 Toluca
  • Toluca 2–3 Santos Laguna
Monterrey
  • Monterrey 0–1 Guadalajara Chivas
  • Puebla 1–4 Monterrey
  • Monterrey 2–1 Pachuca
  • Club América 1–1 Monterrey
  • Atlante FC 4–2 Monterrey
Model & data

Table-based model estimate

Matches in saved table: Toluca 17 · Monterrey 17. Data saved: 2026-11-05 15:10 UTC.

Table season: 2025

This Poisson estimate uses goals scored and conceded per game in the saved league table. Home advantage is 1.08; goal rates are limited to 0.3–5.0.

Model goal expectation is not measured shot-based xG. Injuries, confirmed lineups and live match state are not inputs to this calculation.

Assessment recorded before kickoff: Toluca 53% · 2026-11-07 01:40 UTC.

An estimate is not a guarantee of the result.

Lineups, events, odds and statistics depend on provider coverage. Missing data is not a zero value.

1X2 model fair odds · Bookmaker prices may differ

Model goal expectation · 1 1.83
Model goal expectation · 2 0.82
Over 2.5 Goals 50%
BTTS 47%

Table-based model estimate

Model goal expectation: Toluca 1.83 · Monterrey 0.82.
1 61% · X 22% · 2 16%.

Correct Score Predictions

1:0 12.9%
2:0 11.8%
1:1 10.6%
2:1 9.7%
3:0 7.2%
0:0 7%
3:1 5.9%
0:1 5.8%
1:2 4.4%
2:2 4%
4:0 3.3%
4:1 2.7%

About this assessment

Model outcome Toluca Win
Probability 61%
Predicted Odds 1.64

Team Comparison

Toluca Monterrey
5 League Position 13
30 Points 18
47% Win % 29%
1.65 Avg Goals Scored 1.29
0.94 Avg Goals Conceded 1.41

Venue Form

Toluca at Home
W0 D2 L1 (3 games)
0% win rate
Monterrey Away
W1 D1 L1 (3 games)
33% win rate

Recent Form

Toluca
D D D L L
Monterrey
L W W D L

More Liga MX Predictions

Atlante FC vs Santos Laguna
Sat 07 Nov
Atlas vs Pachuca
Sat 07 Nov Tip: 2 · 40%
Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul
Sat 07 Nov Tip: 1 · 39%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Club América
Sun 08 Nov Tip: 1 · 56%

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A practical guide to the information shown here.

01

Read the selected market

A match-winner selection and a goal total answer different questions. Read the outcome before comparing percentages.

02

Check the recording time

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03

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Use a defined period, sample and market when comparing results. A probability is not a historical hit rate.

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Are these probabilities a guarantee?

No. A probability describes a model estimate for a particular selection and recording time; the actual match can finish differently.

Why might this page have no related saved forecasts?

Only relevant fixtures with a verified saved record are shown. The match and prediction catalogues may contain other available information.