1
70%
Home Win
1.44
X
17%
Draw
5.83
2
13%
Away Win
7.6
xG Home
2.45
xG Away
0.97
Over 2.5 Goals
66%
BTTS
57%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Toluca an expected 2.4 goals and FC Juarez an expected 1.0 goals. Toluca have a 70% win probability, draw stands at 17%, and FC Juarez at 13%. The most likely exact scoreline is 2–0. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 66%.
Correct Score Predictions
2:0
9.8%
2:1
9.5%
1:0
8%
3:0
8%
1:1
7.8%
3:1
7.8%
4:0
4.9%
4:1
4.8%
2:2
4.6%
1:2
3.8%
3:2
3.8%
0:0
3.3%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Toluca Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 70% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.43 |
| Market Odds | 1.52 |
Team Comparison
| Toluca | FC Juarez | |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | League Position | 12 |
| 30 | Points | 19 |
| 47% | Win % | 29% |
| 1.65 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.53 |
| 0.94 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.88 |
Venue Form
Toluca at Home
W2
D0
L2
(4 games)
FC Juarez Away
W0
D0
L3
(3 games)
Recent Form
Toluca
L
L
W
W
FC Juarez
L
L
L
