1
56%
Home Win
1.79
X
28%
Draw
3.58
2
16%
Away Win
6.17
xG Home
1.38
xG Away
0.60
Over 2.5 Goals
32%
BTTS
34%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Toluca an expected 1.4 goals and Atlas an expected 0.6 goals. Toluca have a 56% win probability, draw stands at 28%, and Atlas at 16%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 68%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:0
19.1%
0:0
13.9%
2:0
13.1%
1:1
11.4%
0:1
8.3%
2:1
7.9%
3:0
6%
3:1
3.6%
1:2
3.4%
0:2
2.5%
2:2
2.4%
4:0
2.1%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Toluca Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 56% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.79 |
| Market Odds | 1.9 |
Team Comparison
| Toluca | Atlas | |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | League Position | 6 |
| 30 | Points | 26 |
| 47% | Win % | 41% |
| 1.65 | Avg Goals Scored | 0.94 |
| 0.94 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.06 |
Venue Form
Toluca at Home
W2
D0
L2
(4 games)
Atlas Away
W3
D0
L1
(4 games)
Recent Form
Toluca
L
L
W
W
Atlas
W
L
W
W
