1
26%
Home Win
3.81
X
24%
Draw
4.2
2
50%
Away Win
2
xG Home
1.18
xG Away
1.72
Over 2.5 Goals
55%
BTTS
57%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Telstar an expected 1.2 goals and Ajax an expected 1.7 goals. Telstar have a 26% win probability, draw stands at 24%, and Ajax at 50%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 55%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
11.2%
1:2
9.6%
0:1
9.4%
0:2
8.1%
2:1
6.6%
1:0
6.5%
2:2
5.7%
1:3
5.5%
0:0
5.5%
0:3
4.7%
2:0
3.8%
2:3
3.3%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Ajax Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 50% |
| Predicted Odds | 2 |
| Market Odds | 2.13 |
Team Comparison
| Telstar | Ajax | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | League Position | 5 |
| 37 | Points | 56 |
| 26% | Win % | 41% |
| 1.44 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.82 |
| 1.62 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.21 |
Venue Form
Telstar at Home
W2
D0
L0
(2 games)
Ajax Away
W1
D0
L0
(1 games)
Recent Form
Telstar
W
W
Ajax
W
