1
46%
Home Win
2.16
X
26%
Draw
3.8
2
27%
Away Win
3.66
xG Home
1.45
xG Away
1.05
Over 2.5 Goals
46%
BTTS
50%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Swansea an expected 1.5 goals and Watford an expected 1.1 goals. Swansea have a 46% win probability, draw stands at 26%, and Watford at 27%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 54%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
12.5%
1:0
11.9%
2:1
9.1%
2:0
8.6%
0:1
8.6%
0:0
8.2%
1:2
6.6%
2:2
4.8%
0:2
4.5%
3:1
4.4%
3:0
4.2%
3:2
2.3%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Swansea Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 46% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.17 |
| Market Odds | 2.31 |
Team Comparison
| Swansea | Watford | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | League Position | 16 |
| 64 | Points | 57 |
| 39% | Win % | 30% |
| 1.24 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.15 |
| 1.28 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.41 |
Venue Form
Swansea at Home
W1
D0
L1
(2 games)
Watford Away
W0
D0
L3
(3 games)
Recent Form
Swansea
W
L
Watford
L
L
L
